it's been conventional wisdom that Vietnam's prime time has come. this Lexus owner (whose Vietnam friend heads VinaCapital) could travel to Ho Chi Minh City way more often than me. and media coverage on the country has been like torrents of positivity. also look at the international attention the Prime Minister commands on his overseas visits.

when the hype runs high, it's always good to be attached to reality so yeah, i shall be a cynic on the other side of the coin, less polished and less frequented.

let's see. FDI's gonna exceed US$12 billion this year. but no, Vietnam's energy resources are seriously too wanting to materialise half of that. not to mention the severe inadequacy of connectivity. the proportion of investment that materialises into factories comes at the cost of environmental degradation, which if accounted for could well reduce real GDP growth by 4 to 5 percentage points. so yeah, even as Vietnam's roaring to its 8.5% growth benchmark, there's little cause for celebration.

there's still the other villain of "galloping" inflation. the PM demands controlled price increase. but looks like his ministers could best hold it at 8%, due to the inherent high import composition of the economy, especially of petrol and diesel fuel. but 8% is ridiculous. minimum wage rate is expected to rise, but that's too little to even play good catch-up, let alone a keep-up game, with inflation.

it doesn't at all matter to the Da Nang man who just ordered a US$2 million private yacht or the HCMC tycoon with his US$1.5 million chauffeured limousine. but damn it, to the civil servants and school teachers and even university lecturers whose average pay is at most US$150, the case's alarming. to think many are intellectuals. "cheap grey matter" eh.

to the extent that Vietnam is littered with such impediments, it's simply economic growth, not at all economic development. the conventional wisdom is kind of unconventional after all.